Bob World Builder WOTC & D&D Popularity Survey Predictions and Results
Created time: March 24, 2024 10:25 AM
Courtesy of the survey and results Bob World Builder posted here:
The Original Data
My Main Points
- How anyone feels doesn’t matter to how you feel.
- These results don’t matter for you and your love of D&D and RPGs and the games you run with your players.
- These results aren’t representative of everyone. We don’t know what “everyone” looks like. There’s no “average” player.
- Respondents think positively about D&D and negatively about WOTC
- WOTC has a big image problem.
- Most respondents aren’t positive about the future direction of D&D.
- Respondents were accurate about other respondents’ feelings on WOTC (I was wrong!)
My Predictions
How do you feel about Dungeons & Dragons (D&D)?
I hate this game 5
I don't like this game 5
I'm neutral on this game 10
I like this game 30
I love this game 50
When was the last time you recommended D&D to someone else?
Never 5
More than a year ago 5
In the past year 45
In the past month 45
Do you think D&D is becoming less popular, becoming more popular, or staying the same?
Becoming less popular 30
Staying the same 50
Becoming more popular 20
How do you feel about the current direction of the D&D game?
Strongly negative 10
Negative 30
Neutral 30
Positive 25
Strongly positive 5
How do you feel about Wizards of the Coast?
I hate this company 10
I don't like this company 30
I'm neutral on this company 40
I like this company 15
I love this company 5
When was the last time you recommended Wizards of the Coast products to someone else?
Never 5
More than a year ago 5
In the past year 45
In the past month 45
Do you think Wizards of the Coast is becoming less popular, becoming more popular, or staying the same?
Becoming less popular 45
Staying the same 45
Becoming more popular 10
How do you feel about the current direction of Wizards of the Coast?
Strongly negative 20
Negative 45
Neutral 20
Positive 10
Strongly positive 5
How often do you watch or read content about RPG news and current events?
Never 0
Yearly 5
Monthly 10
Weekly 55
Daily 30
Big Hypothesis
Most people think that other people think negatively about WOTC than actually do.
Actual Results
DnD_Feelings
- I love this game 35%
- I like this game 39%
- I'm neutral on this game 15%
- I don't like this game 9%
- I hate this game 2%
DnD_Last_Recommendation
- Never 7%
- More than a year ago 38%
- In the past year 32%
- In the past month 23%
DnD_Popularity
- Becoming more popular 26%
- Staying the same 41%
- Becoming less popular 33%
DnD_Direction
- Strongly negative 25%
- Negative 38%
- Neutral 26%
- Positive 10%
- Strongly positive 1%
WotC_Feelings
- I hate this company 28%
- I don't like this company 51%
- I'm neutral on this company 19%
- I like this company 3%
- I love this company <1%
WotC_Last_Recommendation
- Never 22%
- More than a year ago 52%
- In the past year 18%
- In the past month 7%
WotC_Popularity
- Becoming less popular 84%
- Staying the same 13%
- Becoming more popular 3%
WotC_Direction
- Strongly negative 54%
- Negative 35%
- Neutral 9%
- Positive 1%
- Strongly positive <1%
RPG_Content_Consumption
- Daily 42%
- Weekly 43%
- Monthly 13%
- Yearly 1%
- Never 1%
Correlations
Correlation Notes:
- People who felt positively about WOTC also felt positively about their direction.
- People who felt negatively about WOTC felt negative about their direction.
- People who felt negatively about WOTC felt bad about the direction of D&D.
Calibrating my Predictions
(Mike’s original predictions in parens)
DnD_Feelings
- Positive: 75% (80%)
- Neutral: 15% (10%)
- Negative: 10% (10%)
DnD_Popularity
- Positive: 26% (20%)
- Neutral: 41% (50%)
- Negative: 33% (30%)
DnD_Direction
- Positive: 11% (30%)
- Neutral: 26% (30%)
- Negative: 63% (40%)
WotC_Feelings
- Positive: 3% (20%)
- Neutral: 19% (40%)
- Negative: 79% (40%)
WotC_Popularity
- Positive: 3% (10%)
- Neutral: 13% (45%)
- Negative: 84% (45%)
WotC_Direction
- Positive: 1% (15%)
- Neutral: 9% (20%)
- Negative: 89% (65%)
Timeline of Survey Responses
Comparing Bob, PDM, and Sly Flourish
| Category | Sentiment | Total Data (8,772) | Bob Data (4,961) | PDM Data (2,227) | Sly Data (752) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DnD_Feelings | Positive | 75% | 76% | 68% | 83% |
| Neutral | 15% | 14% | 17% | 12% | |
| Negative | 10% | 9% | 14% | 5% | |
| DnD_Popularity | Positive | 26% | 25% | 24% | 34% |
| Neutral | 41% | 42% | 39% | 39% | |
| Negative | 33% | 33% | 37% | 27% | |
| DnD_Direction | Positive | 11% | 12% | 6% | 17% |
| Neutral | 26% | 29% | 17% | 30% | |
| Negative | 63% | 59% | 77% | 52% | |
| WotC_Feelings | Positive | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| Neutral | 19% | 18% | 17% | 27% | |
| Negative | 79% | 79% | 81% | 68% | |
| WotC_Popularity | Positive | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Neutral | 13% | 11% | 15% | 18% | |
| Negative | 84% | 87% | 80% | 79% | |
| WotC_Direction | Positive | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Neutral | 9% | 9% | 7% | 16% | |
| Negative | 89% | 89% | 93% | 82% |